As the U.S. navigates the evolving challenges of clean energy expansion in 2025, five key questions continue to define the trajectory of the sector. From surging electricity demand to federal policy shifts under the Trump administration, these factors present both risk and opportunity. For AFS Commodities, staying ahead of these changes means providing clients with actionable insights and resilient solutions in today’s complex energy landscape.

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Here’s a closer look at the critical questions shaping the clean energy market—and how AFS Commodities is helping clients lead the transition.

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1. Is Electricity Demand Outpacing Clean Energy Growth?

Electricity demand in the U.S. is growing faster than forecast, driven by a surge in AI data centers, industrial reshoring, EV adoption, and crypto mining. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) now projects electricity consumption will rise 15% by 2029, and utilities are already reporting local grid capacity strains due to concentrated AI-related load growth.

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Clean energy installations are increasing—but not fast enough to match this acceleration, especially with ongoing transmission and interconnection delays. As a result, more businesses are turning to flexible, decentralized energy strategies to secure long-term supply.

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AFS Commodities' Role:

• Assisting clients with Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) that lock in renewable energy supply at favorable rates.
• Providing tailored guidance on Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) and carbon offset strategies to meet sustainability targets despite grid constraints.
• Supporting alternative solutions like biomethane (RNG) and EV quota mechanisms, enabling compliance even when electricity access is limited.

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2. Will Federal Regulations Drive Deeper Emissions Reductions?

Under the 2025 Trump administration, the direction of federal climate policy has shifted. The EPA’s ability to enforce emissions limits has been curtailed following recent court decisions, while proposed rules around power plant emissions are under administrative review. Additionally, uncertainty surrounds the 45V Hydrogen Production Tax Credit, with revisions or repeals under discussion in the 2025 budget proposal.

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Nevertheless, many state-level mandates remain active, and corporate sustainability commitments continue to drive emissions reduction efforts—particularly in regions aligned with clean energy goals.

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AFS Commodities' Role:

• Helping clients navigate shifting regulatory frameworks, especially where federal rollbacks are offset by local or regional rules.
• Advising on how to leverage hydrogen tax credits and other federal incentives while they remain accessible.
• Identifying compliance-driven trading opportunities in state programs like California’s LCFS or cap-and-trade markets.

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3. How Will Federal Funding and Interest Rates Impact Clean Energy Growth?

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) remains a pivotal force in the U.S. energy transition, with tax credits continuing to attract investment. However, disbursement of IRA funding—particularly the $27B Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund—has been slower than expected, and some allocations are under review in the 2025 federal budget.

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Meanwhile, interest rates remain elevated, making project financing more expensive and delaying final investment decisions for some developers.

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AFS Commodities' Role:

• Delivering up-to-date market intelligence on energy pricing and interest rate impact to guide investment decisions.
• Facilitating access to renewable energy tax credits, direct pay provisions, and compliance pathways under the IRA.
• Assisting clients in structuring investments in RNG, clean fuels, and energy infrastructure to align with both policy timelines and market demand.

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4. Will Transmission Reforms Support Clean Energy Expansion?

Transmission remains the #1 constraint on large-scale renewable energy growth. The DOE has initiated funding for key grid upgrades, and FERC has finalized planning reforms—but implementation delays and stalled Congressional permitting reform continue to bottleneck expansion. As a result, renewable projects are increasingly stranded in remote areas, waiting on transmission buildout.

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AFS Commodities' Role:

• Offering expert guidance on interregional transmission planning and investment strategies, helping businesses unlock access to clean energy.
• Supporting clients in identifying opportunities to benefit from DOE grid funding programs and regional interconnection upgrades.
• Developing interim strategies using renewable natural gas (RNG) and local compliance credits to meet sustainability targets despite infrastructure constraints.

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5. Will Interconnection Reforms Alleviate Backlogs?

FERC’s Order No. 2023, aimed at streamlining the interconnection process, is now in effect—but progress has been uneven. While some regional grid operators (like MISO and SPP) have adopted new processes and reduced study timelines, others still face multi-year backlogs. Projects continue to face delays related to queue congestion, transmission cost-sharing, and system upgrade requirements.

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This ongoing uncertainty is pushing more companies to prioritize virtual PPAs, energy storage, and distributed generation as ways to navigate around interconnection challenges.

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AFS Commodities' Role:

• Guiding clients through the interconnection process, including technical and financial implications of current reforms.
• Structuring clean energy procurement through on-site generation, battery storage, and virtual PPAs to mitigate interconnection risks.
• Partnering with clean energy developers to optimize project design and interconnection timelines for maximum value.

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Seizing the Clean Energy Opportunity with AFS Commodities

Despite policy shifts and infrastructure roadblocks, 2025 remains a critical growth window for clean energy in the U.S. Businesses that take a proactive, informed approach can leverage incentives, market-based mechanisms, and regulatory flexibility to gain a competitive edge.

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AFS Commodities supports clients across four key pillars:

• Renewable Energy Procurement & Trading
• Carbon Credit & RNG Compliance Strategies
• Market-Based Risk Management Solutions
• Energy Policy and Regulatory Advisory

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By staying ahead of legislative developments, technology shifts, and financial incentives, AFS Commodities ensures your business is equipped to lead in a low-carbon economy.

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Contact us today to learn how we can help you build a clean energy strategy that’s resilient, efficient, and built for what’s next.